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Sending a rocket to Mars is a complicated problem, but with enough of the right people and money we will eventually get to Mars.

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Taking a product to market is complex (and in some cases I would argue chaotic). There are many interconnected parts and variables that constantly change and a lot of the time they change on the whims of what’s fashionable or going viral on TikTok. This is what makes it f*cking hard.

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If anyone tells you they have an algorithm or magic spell that will solve it for you, it’s snake oil.

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“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; trouble is I don't know which half.”

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There was a time in my life where I would have told you with a high degree of conviction that we could solve any marketing problem with data. More than a decade later, I will tell you it’s unsolvable.

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The market is a competitive beast and that’s ok. You crack a distribution problem, a competitor is going to copy you, and their competitor is going to best them. It is an infinite game.

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So how do we manage? With complex problems, the approach is Probe-Sense-Respond.

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Probe

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Set the field of play. You have an opportunity to write your rules here. You have to set the parameters and assumptions. You have to do this knowing they will change, but you have to do it, otherwise how can you start playing?

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• What’s the problem you’re solving and for whom (specifically)?

• Do they care?

• How many of them?

• How many compliance and procurement people are trying to block you?

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Sense

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Constantly check your assumptions and metrics you set above. If you’re looking at sales metrics, do it with each deal. If you’re looking at marketing metrics, look at the performance of each piece of content, hourly, daily, weekly. Obsess over it.

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• Are you winning deals?

• What’s blocking you?

• Are you having to negotiate pricing?

• Are you running out of prospects? Saturating the market?

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Respond

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Analyse your successes and roadblocks. Double down on those things that are moving you in the right direction, and don’t be afraid to cut losing strategies if the writing is on the wall. Believe what the process tells you and refine, refine, refine.

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• Are they trying to bargain on price constantly? Do more brand building work to set price premiums.

• Prospects ghosting you? Find out who’s blocking deals and what their concerns are.

• Your product is better, but incumbents keep beating you? Prospects think the pain of switching is too high. Fix the product or onboarding issues.

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Most importantly, like in a game of football (another complex domain), pick your players. Experience enables the quick decision-making required for complex domains. The coaches know that they can have all the best tactics but it’s the play-by-play on a constantly moving field that wins matches.

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To quote Mike Tyson, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

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